Thorsten

Blenckner

PhD

Principal researcher & associate professor

thorsten.blenckner@su.se

+46 8 674 76 69

Twitter-link

RSS-link

Profile summary

  • Social-ecological change, novelty and tipping points
  • Climate impacts and ocean health
  • Theoretical system thinking
  • Marine ecology
  • Statistical and mechanistic modelling
  • Ecosystem-based management

Thorsten Blenckner´s research vision is to contribute to a sustainable world by advancing and integrating science using quantitative approaches in a social-ecological system context

His current research is in developing and using advanced quantitative analysis and modeling tools to analyse the dynamics of marine systems. Blenckner focuses on further developing theoretical thinking of resilience, tipping points, novelty and ocean health through quantitative analysis of system responses to changes in climate and human activities.

He has experiences in field sampling (physical to biological parameters), quantitative experiments (large-scale mesocosm), laboratory (background lab technician), long-term statistical data analysis and ecosystem modeling in combination with synthesis and integration of social and ecological research findings and analysis in an overarching systems and management perspective.

Blenckner applies methods and techniques such as: time-series analysis (like Generalized Additive Modelling and its threshold variant), tipping point analyses (e.g. change point analysis), novelty analysis (dissimilarity methods), food-web modelling (e.g. Ecopath) and ocean health analysis (Ocean Health Index).

Blenckner holds a MSc in Biology and a PhD and docent in limnology. He is leading or involved in many international projects such as the EU project COMFORT on climate-induced tipping points, the Baltic Health Index and a FORMAS project on cumulative impacts in the Baltic Sea.

Blenckner has published over 70 peer-reviewed articles in both natural and interdisciplinary science journals. He is a Visiting Fellow of the National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis (NCEAS) University of California, US. Since January 2021 he is a member of the European Marine Board of coastal resilience and the IMBeR Science Steering Committee.

Relevant info

Share

Facebook
Twitter
Email

Publications by Blenckner, Thorsten

Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth

Journal / article | 2022

Uusitaloa, L., Blenckner, T., Puntila-Dodda, R., Skyttäa, A. et al. 2022. Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 806, Part 2. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150450.

Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network- based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body o...

Is diversity the missing link in coastal fisheries management?

Journal / article | 2022

Kininmonth, S.; Blenckner, T.; Niiranen, S.; Watson, J.; Orio, A.; Casini, M.; Neuenfeldt, S.; Bartolino, V.; Hansson, M. 2022. Is Diversity the Missing Link in Coastal Fisheries Management? Diversity, 14, 90. https://doi.org/10.3390/d14020090

Fisheries management has historically focused on the population elasticity of target fish based primarily on demographic modeling, with the key assumptions of stability in environmental conditions and static trophic relationships. The predictive capacity of this fisheries framework is poor, especially in closed systems where the benthic diversity and boundary effects are important and the stock levels are low. Here, we presen...

Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth

Journal / article | 2021

Uusitalo, L., Blenckner, T., Puntila-Dodd, R., Skyttä, A., Jernberg, S., Voss, R., Müller-Karulis, B., Tomczak, M.T., Möllmann, C. & Peltonen, H. 2021. Integrating diverse model results into decision support for good environmental status and blue growth. Science of The Total Environment doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150450

Sustainable environmental management needs to consider multiple ecological and societal objectives simultaneously while accounting for the many uncertainties arising from natural variability, insufficient knowledge about the system's behaviour leading to diverging model projections, and changing ecosystem. In this paper we demonstrate how a Bayesian network- based decision support model can be used to summarize a large body of...

Mapping and Evaluating Marine Protected Areas and Ecosystem Services: A Transdisciplinary Delphi Forecasting Process Framework

Journal / article | 2021

Belgrano, A., Novaglio, C., Svedang, H., Villasante, S., Melian, C.J., Blenckner, T., Bergstrom, U., Bryhn, A., Bergstrom, L., Bartolino, V., Skold, M., Tomczak, M., Wikstrom, S.A., Hansen, A.S., Linke, S., Emmerson, R., Morf, A. & Tonnesson, K. 2021. Mapping and Evaluating Marine Protected Areas and Ecosystem Services: A Transdisciplinary Delphi Forecasting Process Framework. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 9, 652492.

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are an important tool for management and conservation and play an increasingly recognised role in societal and human well-being. However, the assessment of MPAs often lacks a simultaneous consideration of ecological and socio-economic outcomes, and this can lead to misconceptions on the effectiveness of MPAs. In this perspective, we present a transdisciplinary approach based on the Delphi method f...